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Market Matters Blog 10/17 09:04
DTN Weekly DDG Price Lower on Average
US Surface Transportation Board Addresses Demurrage Rules, Charges
DTN Weekly DDG Price Higher on Average
2019 U.S Spring Wheat and Durum Harvest: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
Will the 13th US-China Trade Meeting Be the 'Lucky One?'
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher
It's a Wrap! 2019 Hard Red Winter Wheat Harvest Finally Ends
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher
Key Columbia River Lock Shutdown Stops All Barges Headed for Export
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Stronger
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DTN Weekly DDG Price Lower on Average
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was down $1, to $141 per ton for
the week ended Oct. 16. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but overall,
the DDG price this week came under some pressure from the weaker cash corn
price.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative
to corn for the week ended Oct. 16 was at 100.78%. The value of DDG relative to
soybean meal was at 46.26%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22,
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.42.
Various closures on the Mississippi River are likely stalling transport of
some export containers to the Gulf this week. In the Upper Mississippi River,
Locks 16 and 17 have been closed to northbound and southbound traffic since
Oct. 13. American Commercial Barge Line noted that the latest forecasts reflect
Lock 17 will reopen the evening of Oct. 17 and Lock 16 will reopen the morning
of Oct. 18. Twenty-four hours of transit delays are expected for the cleanup of
both locks.
In the Lower Mississippi there is a closure at Mile 249 as of Oct. 16
through Oct. 18 from 07:00-17:00 to southbound tows with four or more barges.
At the Gulf, weather fronts moving through the Gulf and Canal areas this week
through Oct. 18 will cause intermittent delays there from wind and fog, added
ACBL.
ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION CURRENT PREVIOUS CHANGE
COMPANY STATE 10/16/2019 10/11/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri Dry $150 $150 $0
Wet $75 $75 $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject Dry $147 $147 $0
Wet $75 $75 $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Subject Illinois Dry $140 $140 $0
Subject Indiana Dry $140 $140 $0
Subject Iowa Dry $135 $135 $0
Subject Michigan Dry $150 $150 $0
Subject Minnesota Dry $135 $135 $0
Subject North Dakota Dry $130 $130 $0
Subject New York Dry $150 $150 $0
Subject South Dakota Dry $125 $125 $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $145 $145 $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $140 $150 -$10
Iowa Dry $140 $145 -$5
Michigan Dry $135 $135 $0
Minnesota Dry $138 $140 -$2
Missouri Dry $143 $145 -$2
Ohio Dry $145 $155 -$10
South Dakota Dry $150 $150 $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $145 $140 $5
Wet $55 $45 $10
Illinois Dry $147 $147 $0
Nebraska Dry $135 $145 -$10
Wet $45 $45 $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $145 $145 $0
Indiana Dry $155 $155 $0
Iowa Dry $140 $140 $0
Michigan Dry $150 $150 $0
Minnesota Dry $135 $135 $0
Nebraska Dry $140 $140 $0
New York Dry $165 $165 $0
North Dakota Dry $140 $140 $0
Ohio Dry $155 $155 $0
South Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
Wisconsin Dry $135 $135 $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana Dry $136 $136 $0
Iowa Dry $145 $135 $10
Minnesota Dry $140 $140 $0
Nebraska Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $145 $145 $0
South Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
California Dry $205 $200 $5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California Dry $203 $206 -$3
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $141 $142 -$1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.
VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 10/16/2019 $3.9175 $139.91
Soybean Meal 10/16/2019 $304.80
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $141.00
DDG Value Relative to: 10/16 10/10
Corn 100.78% 104.56%
Soybean Meal 46.26% 46.69%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $5.22 $5.26
Soybean Meal $6.42 $6.40
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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US Surface Transportation Board Addresses Demurrage Rules, Charges
The Surface Transportation Board (STB) released a statement on Oct. 7 that
it is issuing a "series of decisions on demurrage and accessorial rules and
charges, continuing its efforts to improve dispute resolution processes,
promote transparency, and make the agency more accessible."
The STB issued the three decisions concurrently to address matters arising
from the STB's May 2019 two-day public hearing on railroad demurrage and
accessorial charges, "Oversight Hearing on Demurrage and Accessorial Charges,
Docket No. EP 754." The hearing was held in response to significant recent
changes in demurrage and accessorial rules and charges implemented by several
Class I railroads the STB was actively monitoring.
The National Grain and Feed (NGFA) was present at the hearing with testimony
provided by NGFA President and Chief Executive Officer Randy Gordon. "We
believe that in far too many cases, current demurrage and accessorial charges
and practices are egregious and merely exemplify the market power of today's
Class I railroads, reflecting their ability to unilaterally impose one-sided
terms and conditions on their customers," said Gordon.
"Frankly, NGFA members in some segments of our industry believe they are at
a 'tipping point' in their relationship with Class I rail carriers because of
these and other practices, particularly with the increased adoption of the
so-called precision scheduled railroad operating model." Here is a link to the
press release issued by the NGFA on May 23, 2019:
https://www.ngfa.org/newsletter/ngfa-urges-stb-to-develop-principles-guidance-go
verning-rail-demurrage-and-accessorial-charges-and-practices/.
The NGFA in their June 14, 2019, newsletter noted that Class I freight
railroads pushed back strongly against the STB pursuing any policies, guidance
or investigation of carriers' demurrage and accessorial charges and practices
following the agency's "robust, informative and eye-popping" May 22 and May 23
public hearing in Washington.
In the article, the NGFA presented comments from all of the Class 1
rai1roads who voiced their concerns in supplemental comments submitted to the
agency in the aftermath of the May public hearing.
https://www.ngfa.org/newsletter/railroads-oppose-stb-policy-action-on-demurrage-
accessorial-practices/.
The three decisions issued by the STB are:
-- A proposed policy statement to facilitate more effective problem solving
between railroads, shippers and receivers by providing information on
principles the STB would consider in evaluating the reasonableness of demurrage
and accessorial rules and charges.
-- A proposed rule to enhance the transparency and accuracy of demurrage
invoices.
-- A proposed rule to make unambiguous that the regulation of demurrage is
not excluded for exempt miscellaneous commodities and boxcar transportation,
and to treat the exemption for certain agricultural commodities similarly.
With the proposed policy statement, the STB expects to facilitate more
effective problem solving between railroads, shippers and receivers in order to
help prevent unnecessary future issues and, when disputes arise, to help
resolve them more efficiently and cost-effectively.
The STB is issuing this proposed policy statement to provide the public with
information on principles that the STB would consider in "evaluating the
reasonableness of demurrage and accessorial rules and charges." The STB seeks
public comment on this proposed policy statement and may revise it, as
appropriate, after consideration of the comments received.
Comments on this proposed policy statement are due by Nov. 6, 2019. Reply
comments are due by Dec. 6, 2019. Comments and replies may be filed with the
Board either via e-filing or in writing addressed to: Surface Transportation
Board, Attn: Docket No. EP 757, 395 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20423-0001.
Comments and replies will be posted to the STB's website at http://www.stb.gov/.
Here is a link to the Federal Register Notice Volume 84, Number 197,
Thursday, October 10, 2019:
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-10-10/html/2019-22200.htm.
Here is a link to the press release issued by the STB on 10-7-19:
https://www.stb.gov/newsrels.nsf/13c1d2f25165911f8525687a00678fa7/fdf7975c980b39
8a8525848c005061b9?OpenDocument.
Here is a link to all the comments currently associated with the Oversight
Hearing on Demurrage and Accessorial Charges, Docket No. EP 754. All you need
to do is open the drop down next to Docket# and click on "EP" and then in the
next box put 754:
https://www.stb.gov/home.nsf/EnhancedSearch?OpenForm&Seq=1&Type=F.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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DTN Weekly DDG Price Higher on Average
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $2, to $142 per ton for
the week ended Oct. 10. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but the
strength in the cash basis kept the market firm in spite of the sharply lower
close in corn futures Thursday.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that ethanol
inventory in the U.S. was drawn down 2 million barrels (bbl) to a 21.2 million
bbl two-year low during the week ended Oct. 4. The steep draw came despite a
small decline in blending activity and as domestic plant production edged
higher.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative
to corn for the week ended Oct. 10 was at 104.56%. The value of DDG relative to
soybean meal was at 46.69%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.26,
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.40.
In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "Barge CIF
NOLA prices are slightly lower this week while FOB Gulf offers are steady to $1
per metric ton (mt) lower. Rates for DDGS delivered via rail to the PNW are $2
to $3/MT higher this week with the winter storm across the northwestern Plains
complicating logistics. Prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia are
$5/MT lower this week for October shipment but are $1 to $2/MT higher for
November/December shipment."
ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION CURRENT PREVIOUS CHANGE
COMPANY STATE 10/11/2019 10/3/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Subject Missouri Dry $150 $150 $0
Subject Wet $75 $75 $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject Dry $147 $142 $5
Wet $75 $72 $3
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois Dry $140 $140 $0
Indiana Dry $140 $145 -$5
Iowa Dry $135 $130 $5
Michigan Dry $150 $145 $5
Minnesota Dry $135 $130 $5
North Dakota Dry $130 $130 $0
New York Dry $150 $145 $5
South Dakota Dry $125 $125 $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $145 $145 $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $150 $150 $0
Iowa Dry $145 $145 $0
Michigan Dry $135 $135 $0
Minnesota Dry $140 $145 -$5
Missouri Dry $145 $145 $0
Ohio Dry $155 $155 $0
South Dakota Dry $150 $150 $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $140 $145 -$5
Wet $45 $55 -$10
Illinois Dry $147 $147 $0
Nebraska Dry $145 $145 $0
Wet $45 $50 -$5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $145 $140 $5
Indiana Dry $155 $150 $5
Iowa Dry $140 $135 $5
Michigan Dry $150 $145 $5
Minnesota Dry $135 $130 $5
Nebraska Dry $140 $135 $5
New York Dry $165 $160 $5
North Dakota Dry $140 $135 $5
Ohio Dry $155 $150 $5
South Dakota Dry $135 $130 $5
Wisconsin Dry $135 $130 $5
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Subject Indiana Dry $136 $136 $0
Subject Iowa Dry $135 $135 $0
Subject Minnesota Dry $140 $140 $0
Subject Nebraska Dry $135 $135 $0
Subject Ohio Dry $145 $145 $0
Subject South Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
Subject California Dry $200 $200 $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California Dry $206 $203 $3
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $142 $140 $2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.
VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 10/10/2019 $3.8025 $135.80
Soybean Meal 10/10/2019 $304.10
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $142.00
DDG Value Relative to: 10/10 10/3
Corn 104.56% 100.11%
Soybean Meal 46.69% 46.64%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $5.26 $5.15
Soybean Meal $6.40 $6.27
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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2019 U.S Spring Wheat and Durum Harvest: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
The 2019 spring wheat and durum planting season was stalled by late-spring
snow, along with constant rains in some of the key growing areas of the
Northern Plains. Fast forward to September and early October and the same can
be said for the harvest that never wants to end.
Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC in Enderlin,
North Dakota, said in late June that spring wheat acres in his area were down
10% to 12% from what farmers had intended to plant. "There is a big range in
planting dates of April 23 to June 11. Because of the cool and damp conditions,
wheat planted by mid-May looks very good and has decent potential. The balance
will be 10 to 15 bushels per acre (bpa) less on yield."
Brandt said on Oct. 3 that the 2019 crop was "certainly not the fanciest
wheat crop we have ever harvested and we are still not 100% done with 1% to 2%
of standing wheat left. We have an average yield of 50-55 bushels per acre,
14.5% protein and grading No. 2NS, average 270 falling numbers and average 2.7
vomitoxin."
Brandt said the crop is tough to market because it's all commingled due to
most of the crop coming in wet and having to be dried. "Markets seems to handle
falling numbers easier than vomitoxin and we can use the low falling numbers
for delivery wheat. A lot of western and northern North Dakota got most of
their crop off in good condition before this terrible weather set in. Will be
an adequate supply of milling wheat. Just have to find that number where they
will sell."
As of Sept. 30, Minnesota Department of Ag is estimating that 3% of
Minnesota wheat is still unharvested. "It is hard to describe this year's
spring wheat harvest without using four-letter words," said Tim Dufault, of
Crookston, Minnesota. "The harvest on our farm lasted 31 days; there were nine
days of measurable rain and a stretch of 14 days where it was just cool and
damp and unfit to harvest. Yields in northwest Minnesota were averaging over 70
bpa with 60-pound-plus test weights. Proteins varied by variety but much of the
crop was over 14%. Then, as the rain events started to take their toll, test
weights started to drop, sprout damage showed up and the term 'falling numbers'
returned to farmer's vocabulary. Elevators soon stopped buying wheat under 200
falling numbers. The last couple of fields for us averaged about 55 bpa,
58-pound test weight and the falling numbers were down to 66."
Dufault, who is a board member on the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion
Council, said that people he has visited with are estimating that 25% of the
hard red spring crop will be feed wheat. "Wheat yield overall should be a
little bit above average. In a nutshell, this year's wheat was poor quality,
not worth anything, but there was a lot of it," Dufault added.
Nathan Olsonawski, of Hallock, Minnesota, said, "We had average yield and
good quality to start with but as the wet weather set in, quality took a big
hit, especially with falling numbers."
"Harvest went well," said Kerry Baldwin, of Hope, North Dakota. "Finished up
around the 23rd of August and yields were slightly below average, around the
low 50s. Quality was good, falling numbers around 350, test weight was 62 to 64
lbs. Protein was in the 14.5% range on average. We took a dime discount on one
quarter section of wheat because the vomitoxin was around 2 parts per million
(ppm) while the other quarter section had no discount. We were fortunate to get
our wheat harvested when we did. There was a lot of wheat harvested in
September and still some left now in October for some people."
"This year's spring wheat crop was a challenge from start to finish," said
Tim Luken, manager at Oahe Grain, in Onida, South Dakota. "Planting back in
April through May was very slow going due to the early April blizzard dumping
30 inches of snow and then the addition of all the weekly rain events we had.
This weather set up the tone for the rest of the growing season."
Sully County usually starts spring wheat harvest the third week of July, but
this year Luken said harvest didn't start until Aug. 6 or almost two weeks
later. "We finally finished around Sept. 20 and we are usually done by second
week of August. Surprisingly, the quality of our spring wheat was good; yes,
there was scab present this year (usually don't see it here) and that was due
to rain events we had during the flowering of the wheat.
"With all the rain we had this year on a weekly basis from start to finish,
I was very pleased with quality. I feel the reason we had good quality is that
the planted crop was so spread out in the spring, delaying the ripening of the
crop before it could be harvested. When it did rain, it didn't hurt the later
crops and the crops that were being harvested were taken off with minimal days
of rain, which didn't take a toll on quality. Sprout damage was very isolated
in certain areas. Overall, we are very happy because it could have been much
worse. At the elevator, we took in 643,000 bushels with protein average around
15% and average test weight was 59.6 lbs."
Jerry Cope, who does the grain marketing for Dakota Mill and Grain Inc. in
Rapid City, South Dakota, said that their spring wheat acres were down over 50%
mainly due to the late wet spring that prevented planting more acres. "Acreage
intentions had been higher than a year ago mainly to keep within rotations,"
said Cope.
"Wheat that was planted matured early enough to escape most of the damage,"
said Cope. "Harvested wheat overall has test weights of 59 lbs to 60-plus lbs
and quality was good. Vomitoxin was easily under 2.0 ppm, very little damage
and falling numbers were above 300. The exception was East River where
vomitoxin was more common. Rain did slow harvest and the weed growth created
high dockage and in some cases, dropped color from northern to red spring wheat.
"There is frustration among customers with red spring wheat showing no
vomitoxin, no sprout and high falling numbers being lumped in the same
non-milling category as the sprouted, low falling numbers wheat in North Dakota
and Canada. The same severe discounts for a "color only" issue and not a USDA
grade factor is hard to explain."
There are three subclasses for U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat. U.S. Wheat
Associates states that, "subclass is a separate marketing factor based on the
number of kernels with a complete, hard and vitreous endosperm." Flour milled
from HRS wheat with greater percentages of dark, hard, vitreous (DHV) kernel
shows higher water absorption capacity for bread making.
The three classes are: dark northern spring (DNS) consisting of 75% or more
dark, hard vitreous kernels; northern spring (NS), between 25 and 74% dark,
hard vitreous kernels; and red spring (RS), less than 25% dark, hard, vitreous
kernels.
Cope added that, "Movement has been better than the crop size would indicate
as growers make room for a big fall crop and sell for cash needs. Expect spring
wheat movement to stop once row crop harvest begins."
A farmer in eastern South Dakota said that he finished up harvest on Aug. 30
and yields were average to slightly below average with a lot of lodging, which
cost him yield and adversely affected quality. He noted that despite the fact
he finished up before the big rains hit in early to mid-September, there was
still plenty of rain and many humid nights and mornings after the crop ripened
in August, which resulted in some sprouting.
"Test weights started out in the 62- to 63-pound area, but after the rain we
lost test weight and most of it will be in the 58-59 range," he said "Falling
numbers values are all over the place ranging from the low 200s to low 300s,
but I'm afraid most of it is going to be in that 225-275 range. Vomitoxin
levels so far have been hovering around 2.0 ppm but have heard reports of 5.0
ppm and higher."
Allan Klain, who farms northwest of Turtle Lake, North Dakota, said that
yields and quality were good for the most part early on. "We were hand to mouth
with precipitation until late August, but since then have received 12.5 inches
of rain. Quality issues with low falling numbers are a real problem with any
wheat harvested after Sept. 10.
"We have 10,000 bushels of hailed "junk" wheat that we binned and haven't
tested yet. Our hired man went to Canada on Sept. 9 and estimated 70% of the
wheat was still out from Minot north. All in all, we were slightly above
average yield in the 50s on wheat. We will start beans Oct. 7 ahead of a
forecast of 8-plus inches of snow expected in four days. Will be filling trucks
on road with cart as it is way too soft in field," said Klain.
As the delays in harvest moved deep into September and quality continued to
deteriorate, the cash price increased. The DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat
Index on Sept. 1 was at $4.33 and rose to $5.03 by Oct. 1. The Minneapolis spot
basis moved higher in late-September when there were few milling cars showing
up for sale, but as more cars came to market recently, the spot basis began to
weaken. However, once farmers start soybean and corn harvest, car counts on the
spot market will likely decrease.
LATE DURUM CROP IN BAD SHAPE
The recent USDA crop progress report estimated that 78% of the North Dakota
durum crop and 55% of the Montana crop had been harvested by the end of
September. The North Dakota Wheat Commission said that, "as with spring wheat,
it is likely some of the durum crop simply won't be harvested and quality on
the remaining crop will be compromised."
North Dakota farmers on social media disagree with the USDA reporting that
78% of durum is harvested. Many said they haven't turned a wheel in more than a
week and it might be another week before they get going. One farmer noted that
he was only 35% done on durum and knows of other farmers who hadn't even
started yet and may end up tilling the crop up.
BJ Wehrman, of Ambrose, North Dakota, said he lives in the heart of durum
country and there is more left to combine than has been cut. "If 50% has been
cut I would be surprised, and it's not 'backyarditis' because it extends all
the way to the South Dakota border and west a couple hundred miles into Montana.
"It's not good up here. Canola is sprouting, wheat is sprouting and starting
to lay down. Have even heard of some flax and safflower sprouting also. I
haven't turned a wheel in nine days. Started harvest approximately Aug. 21 and
I don't think we have had more than three days of work in a row," said Wehrman.
"We are in a historically strong durum area, but a lot of guys have moved away
from that over the last eight years or so and shifted to spring wheat since
quality is easier to maintain, but it's getting tougher and tougher each year
to even want to plant much wheat, let alone durum."
Wehrman added that, "This is the first year on our farm in probably 50 years
that we had zero acres of durum and man, am I glad we didn't. We pushed hard
and got all our spring wheat off with only one small rain on it. If we had
durum, it would still be in field, as we normally plant durum last, around May
20, and it wouldn't have been off yet."
Cash durum prices have been climbing and are in the $8.00-plus range (basis
delivered Chicago/beyond) and continue to rise. Some mill buyers said that
there aren't many offers in the U.S. or even Canada; Canadian durum is in rough
or even worse shape.
When I traded durum in the past and there was a quality issue, farmers with
good milling quality would "padlock" their durum bins and bide their time until
they needed cash.
A few farmers I have talked with the past few weeks have mentioned that they
are weighing whether or not to file a crop insurance claim because of the poor
quality issues in the wheat crop, but said it's not an easy decision because of
how it would affect their actual production history yield (APH) going forward.
This has been a rough year for many farmers and it's going to get worse. DTN
Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson noted in his Oct. 7 forecast that "a
season-ending freeze is indicated for the Northern and western Plains and the
northwestern Midwest this week, along with harvest-disrupting rain and snow."
National Weather Service's Bismarck, North Dakota office has indicated
widespread, accumulating snow beginning Oct. 9, and possibly continuing through
Friday in western and central North Dakota. This will be a knife through the
hearts of farmers in those areas.
Luken summed it up well: "This is the longest small grain harvest I have
ever seen in the 40 years I have been in this business. I hope Mother Nature
gives us a break for the 2020 growing season because we really need one."
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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Will the 13th US-China Trade Meeting Be the 'Lucky One?'
There is increased focus and anticipation heading into next week's trade
talks with China. In the livestock industry, the pork market has the most at
stake for things to go well. Anticipation of not only increased trade, but also
an open invitation to expand pork trade into a market where demand is high and
supplies continue to fall is keeping traders, and the industry as a whole, on
pins and needles.
With the trade war waging on over the last year and concerns of African
swine fever in China decimating pork production there, focus is on the need to
increase imports into China. Although China imports of pork in general have
posted significant gains in 2019, it has been evident that the U.S. is not on
the top of any supplier lists due to the ongoing trade war -- and this may not
change in the near future.
Given the lack of success and progress during the previous meetings between
the two countries, it is fair to say that a more realistic expectation for the
meetings would be for "moderate progress" to be made and hopefully plans to
meet again in the near future. However, expectations going into this meeting
range from no progress to an actual trade agreement. The market reaction to any
of these scenarios, especially in the lean hog complex, is uncertain. The
market has moved in a volatile fashion based on the rumors of China pork trade
and has been disappointed by the lack of positive statements over the past
months.
Over the past year, lean hog futures prices have gyrated within a
$40-per-cwt-wide trading range (Oct. 19, 2018, at $51.60 to May 17, 2019, at
$92.37 per cwt). The need for China to feed its population combined with the
country's continued decision not to tap into U.S. pork supplies only adds
volatility to the market.
The market movements are expected to increase over the next few days as more
news coverage will surround the trade talks, and hopes for a positive deal will
be high. More than likely, this is not a situation that can be ironed out in
the next meeting, although both sides seem to have increased incentive to make
significant progress. However, both sides are needing to create "hope" that a
viable attempt will be seen, and this will likely spark some underlying support
through the entire hog complex.
The issues of the trade deal are significant and fundamentally tied to each
country's economy and how the government of each country conducts business.
However, the repercussions continue to be felt by the core of the agriculture
industry and by producers whose main desire and passion is to provide food in
order to feed the world.
No matter what happens next week (or in future months), the ag industry will
survive due to the resilience of the amazing producers at its core. But the
implications will also be significant not only to the economy, but specifically
to the grain and livestock industries.
So, no matter if the 13th meeting is viewed as "good luck" or "bad luck,"
there will be anxious eyes watching every detail concerning the meeting, as
hopes for a positive outcome develop.
Rick Kment can be reached at Rick.Kment@dtn.com
******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $1, to $140 per ton, for
the week ended Oct. 3. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but the strength
in the cash has kept the market firm overall.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that for the
week ended Sept. 27, ethanol plant production increased 15,000 barrels per day
(bpd) or 1.6% from a more than 3-1/2 year low to 958,000 bpd, which is 57,000
bpd or 5.6% below the year-ago operating rate for the same week. Midwest
producers accounted for 10,000 bpd of the weekly increase in output.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative
to corn for the week ended Oct. 3 was at 100.11%. The value of DDG relative to
soybean meal was at 46.64%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.15,
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.27.
In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "The DDGS
export market is much the same as last week with FOB Gulf values declining
slightly and 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia steady at $239 per metric
ton. The move higher in soybean meal futures has reportedly prompted some
international buyers to take a more cautious approach. Still, with DDGS
supplies expected to remain tighter through the fall, exporters are defending
asking prices."
ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION CURRENT PREVIOUS CHANGE
COMPANY STATE 10/3/2019 9/19/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri Dry $150 $140 $10
Wet $75 $70 $5
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject Dry $142 $142 $0
Wet $72 $72 $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois Dry $140 $145 -$5
Indiana Dry $145 $145 $0
Iowa Dry $130 $130 $0
Michigan Dry $145 $150 -$5
Minnesota Dry $130 $130 $0
North Dakota Dry $130 $130 $0
New York Dry $145 $145 $0
South Dakota Dry $125 $125 $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $145 $135 $10
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $150 $155 -$5
Iowa Dry $145 $145 $0
Michigan Dry $135 $135 $0
Minnesota Dry $145 $140 $5
Missouri Dry $145 $150 -$5
Ohio Dry $155 $150 $5
South Dakota Dry $150 $145 $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $145 $150 -$5
Wet $55 $60 -$5
Illinois Dry $147 $145 $2
Nebraska Dry $145 $145 $0
Wet $50 $50 $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $140 $140 $0
Indiana Dry $150 $145 $5
Iowa Dry $135 $135 $0
Michigan Dry $145 $145 $0
Minnesota Dry $130 $130 $0
Nebraska Dry $135 $130 $5
New York Dry $160 $150 $10
North Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $150 $150 $0
South Dakota Dry $130 $130 $0
Wisconsin Dry $130 $130 $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana Dry $136 $136 $0
Iowa Dry $135 $125 $10
Minnesota Dry $140 $120 $20
Nebraska Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $145 $140 $5
South Dakota Dry $135 $128 $7
California Dry $200 $195 $5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California Dry $203 $200 $3
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $140 $139 $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.
VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 10/3/2019 $3.8875 $138.84
Soybean Meal 10/3/2019 $298.00
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $140.00
DDG Value Relative to: 10/3 9/19
Corn 100.11% 104.41%
Soybean Meal 46.64% 47.57%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $5.15 $5.15
Soybean Meal $6.27 $6.15
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
******************************************************************************
It's a Wrap! 2019 Hard Red Winter Wheat Harvest Finally Ends
In their Sept. 6 weekly harvest report, the U.S. Wheat Association (USW)
noted that the 2019 hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest was winding down.
Harvest was 95% complete in Montana, 99% in Washington and 96% in Idaho.
Harvest was running slow in those areas, as it was in most of the
winter-wheat-growing areas this year.
USW noted that the 2019 crop overall graded a #1 HRW milling quality, 11.3%
protein, 60.8 test weight, 0.1 foreign material, 0.3 damage, 0.8 shrunk and
broken kernels for a total defect count of 1.2. That grade is very similar to
last year, except that the protein average for the 2018 crop was at 12.3%.
Remember that flour mills' flavor of choice is 12% protein when it comes to
making flour. A mill buyer told me that, while flour mills make a 13% protein
flour, the most common is a "mid-mix," 12% protein flour. One thing to note is
that 1% of the wheat protein is lost in the flour-making process, meaning mills
may be blending this year due to the low-protein crop.
The spread between protein premiums has been widening due to the
lower-protein crop produced this year. The Sept. 20 Kansas City HRW spot market
showed the high side of 11.2% at +98KCZ and the high side of 11.4% protein
through 11.8% protein at +135KCZ. The high side of 12% protein through 12.4%
was at +135KCZ and then jumps to +182KCZ for the high side of 12.6% through
12.8%. The premium for 13% through 14% was quoted at +190 for the high side.
DIFFERENT AREAS PRODUCED DIFFERENT CROP
Tim Luken, manager at Oahe Grain in Onida, South Dakota, told me the HRW
harvest there started July 23, about two weeks later than normal, and ended
about one month later due to weekly rain events.
"This was a war with Mother Nature, but overall, our crop wasn't the end of
the world," Luken said. "Yes, almost all the bushels had some sort of tombstone
or scab damage, and we did lose test weight due to rains. Some wheat was 61
pounds at the start, and by the time the same field was done, test weight was
down to 56 pounds.
"As for the higher-damage crop, we told the producer to take it home and
take samples out of each load to come up with a composite sample of the field
or bin. There are those bushels on the farm we will deal with later in the
marketing season. Vomitoxin levels on loads we dumped here were within the 2
ppm (parts per million) or less range. Some of the samples we sent in to be
officially graded were from 2.5 ppm to over 5 ppm. I did hear some delusional
samples coming back as high as 19% vomitoxin that insurance companies had sent
in to be tested. I have heard yields at 55 to 100 bushels per acre (bpa), but
65 bpa to 70 bpa was more common. In our elevator, we took in 1.2 million
bushels and averaged 60 pounds 12.7% protein and 12.3 moisture."
Scott Van Allen, who farms in Sumner County, Kansas, and is a Kansas Wheat
Commissioner, told me that the 2019 winter wheat harvest was one for the record
books for south-central Kansas.
"It started off with record amount of rain in April, May and June, which
delayed harvest approximately two to three weeks," Van Allen said. "When you
combine that with the late planting last fall because of rain, it was a pretty
mediocre crop overall. Yields were mostly average with some below average, but
quality was surprisingly good with 62 to 64 pound test weights and protein in
the 11% range."
In north-central Texas, wheat harvest ran in to some rain and humidity early
on, but Lindsay Kimbrell of Kimbrell Farms told me that their crop was "above
average for around our area, with average protein and quality."
Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, said, "We had excellent yields out in
western Kansas, but not so good in the central corridor that were impacted by
flooding and too much moisture."
Kansas Wheat reported in their final harvest report that proteins varied by
location.
"In the west, proteins were well below average, ranging from 10.5% to 11.5%,
with spotted areas of 12%," Kansas Wheat said in their report. "In central and
south-central Kansas, proteins ranged from 10.5% to 12%, which is above a
normal average of 10.5% to 11%."
In their July 26 weekly harvest update, USW noted that HRW harvest was
finally 100% complete in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
WILL LOWER PRICES DETER PLANTED ACRES THIS FALL?
The 2020 hard red winter crop insurance price has been set at $4.35 per
bushel versus $5.74 last year, making the 2020 hard red winter wheat price the
lowest crop insurance price since 2006 at $3.52 per bushel. That lower price
could push planted acres in Kansas and other states to another historical low.
Van Allen said there will definitely be fewer acres of wheat planted in
Sumner County.
"I am personally planting the fewest acres I have since I started farming
40-plus years ago," he said. "Cash prices below $4 per bushel and 2020 prices
not much better are the main reason."
"Our acres will probably be flat in north-central Texas," said Kimbrell. "We
will likely plant the same as same as last season. It worked well for us this
year, so hopefully if weather allows, we'll do the same."
"Winter wheat planting in South Dakota will be interesting," said Luken.
"Some fields are so saturated that they can't even think to get them planted. I
will say planting will be down and that is due to fields being too wet. I am
sure the producer will try to get as much planted as they can with what drier
fields they can get into. Wheat is planted in our area to spread the workload
and also rotation."
"I tend to think with current economics, low cash wheat prices and low
insurance price, there is less incentive to plant HRW in the Southern Plains,"
said Gilpin. "Also, we are estimating because of the good moisture this spring
and interest in the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) program, we saw more
acres get planted to corn and less acres of fallow than we've maybe ever had in
western Kansas. Those fallow acres in western Kansas that were planted to a
spring crop instead of waiting for this fall to plant winter wheat leads me to
think there will be lower wheat planted acres in western Kansas.
"It is getting pretty dry here, so that will be a factor farmers also
consider. If we are on the verge of a more average-type year with less rain,
there may be some interest in double cropping in central Kansas if this fall
harvest of other crops happens in a timely manner."
Gilpin added, "Wheat is an important crop for Kansas farmers as the added
benefits of weed control in rotation, crop residue for soil health and
protection. Improved varieties on the market recently from public and private
programs, with improved yield potential, are positives for growers preparing
for wheat seeding this fall."
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $3 on average, to $139
per ton, for the week ended Sept. 19. The higher cash corn price is giving
support to DDG prices.
In addition, with the closing of another ethanol plant, DDG supplies are
getting tight in some states. In the past week, Siouxland Energy Cooperative in
Sioux Center, Iowa, idled production at its 90-million-gallon corn-ethanol
plant, bringing the number of idled plants so far this year to more than 15.
These closures and other slowdowns have also kept the DDG prices firm.
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that for the
week ended Sept. 13, ethanol production was at 1.003 million barrels per day
(bpd), a five-month low. Stocks were increased by 700,000 barrels (bbl) from an
11-week low to 23.2 million bbl. Some merchandisers noted that ethanol margins
improved for the week due to shutdowns reducing the abundant supply of ethanol.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative
to corn for the week ended Sept. 19 was at 104.41%. The value of DDG relative
to soybean meal was at 47.57%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.15,
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.15.
In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "FOB Gulf
DDGS prices are slightly ($3/mt) lower this week for October shipment while
U.S. rail rates have increased $2/mt on average. Asking prices for 40-foot
containers to Southeast Asia are up $4/mt to $239/mt following last week's
active inquiries."
ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION CURRENT CURRENT CHANGE
9/12/
COMPANY STATE 9/19/2019 2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri Dry $140 $145 -$5
Wet $70 $73 -$3
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject Dry $142 $140 $2
Wet $72 $72 $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois Dry $145 $145 $0
Indiana Dry $145 $145 $0
Iowa Dry $130 $130 $0
Michigan Dry $150 $150 $0
Minnesota Dry $130 $130 $0
North Dakota Dry $130 $130 $0
New York Dry $145 $145 $0
South Dakota Dry $125 $125 $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $135 $135 $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $155 $150 $5
Iowa Dry $145 $135 $10
Michigan Dry $135 $135 $0
Minnesota Dry $140 $135 $5
Missouri Dry $150 $150 $0
Ohio Dry $150 $145 $5
South Dakota Dry $145 $140 $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $150 $145 $5
Wet $60 $55 $5
Illinois Dry $145 $143 $2
Nebraska Dry $145 $140 $5
Wet $50 $45 $5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $140 $135 $5
Indiana Dry $145 $140 $5
Iowa Dry $135 $130 $5
Michigan Dry $145 $135 $10
Minnesota Dry $130 $125 $5
Nebraska Dry $130 $130 $0
New York Dry $150 $150 $0
North Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $150 $145 $5
South Dakota Dry $130 $125 $5
Wisconsin Dry $130 $130 $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
subject Indiana Dry $136 $136 $0
subject Iowa Dry $125 $125 $0
subject Minnesota Dry $120 $120 $0
subject Nebraska Dry $135 $135 $0
subject Ohio Dry $140 $140 $0
subject South Dakota Dry $128 $128 $0
subject California Dry $195 $195 $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California Dry $200 $205 -$5
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $139 $136 $3
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.
VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 9/19/2019 $3.7275 $133.13
Soybean Meal 9/19/2019 $292.20
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $139.00
DDG Value Relative to: 9/5 9/5
Corn 104.41% 107.41%
Soybean Meal 47.57% 45.93%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $5.15 $5.04
Soybean Meal $6.15 $6.23
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
******************************************************************************
Key Columbia River Lock Shutdown Stops All Barges Headed for Export
The Columbia-Snake River System in the Pacific Northwest is the nation's
single largest wheat export gateway, transporting over 50% of all U.S. wheat to
markets overseas.
That all came to a temporary, but very significant, stoppage at the
Bonneville Lock and Dam, located about 40 miles northeast of Portland, Oregon.
On Thursday, Sept. 5, the lock operators observed issues closing the lock gate
and determined that continued operation posed risks of further damage.
The next day, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland Division issued a
contract to inspect and repair the lock after engineers determined the lock had
a leak, the Corps noted on its website. On Sept. 7, engineers and experts
drained and inspected the lock to assess the needed repairs as Corps
contractors prepared to repair the lock.
On Sept. 8, the Corps team determined that the concrete sill (a narrow
horizontal ledge protruding a short way into the chamber from below the upper
gates) under the downstream gate was the cause of the issue.
"We've started demolition of the damaged sill, which is expected to be
completed Tuesday, Sept. 10. After cleanup of the demolition debris, we can
begin the repairs necessary to restore the lock to operation," the Corps stated
on its website.
The Corps started demolition of the damaged concrete sill at the downstream
end of the navigation lock, and by Sept. 12, demolition and cleanup of the sill
was complete and drilling through concrete began, noted the Corps.
The final determination and timeline for the repairs came in a Sept. 11
statement by the Portland Engineer District, saying the lock will return to
service at 10 a.m. on Sept. 30.
"This lock closure is significant, which is why our engineers, experts and
contractors are working tirelessly to ensure we get the locks back in service
as quickly as possible," Portland District Commander Col. Aaron Dorf stated in
a Sept. 11 news release. "It is not lost on anyone in the Portland District
that this outage has tremendous impacts to Columbia River users. Between now
and Sept. 30, our teams will be working around the clock to construct the new
sill to restore Columbia River traffic."
IMPACT ON FARMERS AND EXPORTERS
I spoke with Bill Flory, an Idaho farmer who grows soft white wheat and malt
barley in Winchester and Claremont, on Saturday. As we were talking, he told me
he was just finishing his wheat harvest because rains had delayed it. I asked
him if he was affected yet by the lock closure, and he told me that, at this
time, he was not.
Flory takes his wheat to a river terminal in Lewiston, Idaho, where it then
heads to the PNW for export.
"We normally have a distinct advantage here in our ability to move grain
from combine to an export vessel within three to four days," said Flory.
"The Corps does an excellent job of repair maintenance, but this latest
closure (at Bonneville) was certainly unexpected," added Flory. "Let's hope to
get this current repair done on schedule, because there are many barges
upstream ready to come down."
I spoke with an exporter who relies on those barges to fill waiting vessels.
He said he expects to see more double berthing and increases to both rail and
vessel demurrage, while the logistics of loading vessels will be much more
difficult.
"Certainly, from an inland shipper standpoint, a force majeure would be
applicable, but from an exporter standpoint, I don't see it applying because
rail is available," he said.
Within the PNW, there are now three BNSF shuttle loaders and one UP larger
train loading station, so shipments could shift in that direction depending on
the logistics of possibly handling the surplus, noted the exporter.
"Switching from barge to rail will increase costs of shipping for some
exporters and lower margins as well," the exporter said.
The soft white wheat harvest is mainly finished, with the exception of the
high line of Washington. That area is where the majority of the effect of the
lock closure could be felt on farmers, unless rail cars are available to move
the crop. One spot that can load out shuttles in that area is the Highline
Grain terminal at Four Lakes, Washington.
INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BECOME A PRIORITY
Flory and I talked about the state of all the locks and dams on the entire
U.S. river system. We both agreed it is imperative a new infrastructure plan
becomes a reality, with enough money allocated to the USACE before more aging
locks and dams fall apart and create monetary losses for farmers if they lose
their ability to ship to the river.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has said in the past that it is "unable to
adequately fund maintenance activities to ensure the navigation system operates
at an acceptable level of performance." A failure of significant duration,
especially during and right after harvest, would have a devastating impact on
shipments of agriculture products and likely cause farmers to lose money,
affecting their profitability. Shippers and exporters, as well as barge lines,
would also experience monetary losses.
A Jan. 3, 2018, Washington Post article quoted President Donald Trump:
"Infrastructure is by far the easiest," the president said Dec. 22, 2017 during
the bill signing for the tax overhaul. "I could've started with infrastructure;
I actually wanted to save the easy one for the one down the road. So we'll be
having that done pretty quickly."
Fast forward to this past spring when President Trump was set to meet with
Democratic leaders at the White House to discuss details of a $2 trillion
spending bill for U.S. infrastructure. The meeting actually took place, but
CNBC reported in a May 22, 2019, article that President Trump walked out of the
meeting. He told reporters in the Rose Garden, "I walked into the room and I
told Sen. Schumer and Speaker Pelosi that I want to do infrastructure, but we
can't do it under these circumstances." The circumstances he spoke of were that
the Democrats supported the Special Counsel investigation of Russian
interference in the 2016 U.S. elections and suspicious links between Trump
associates and Russian officials, conducted by special prosecutor Robert
Mueller.
In the meantime, our aging U.S. lock-and-dam system on U.S. waterways is
deteriorating and is in dire need of permanent repair or replacement. Most of
the locks and dams were built in the 1930s, and engineers estimated their
lifespan at 50 years. The Corps constantly has to put Band-Aids on some of
those locks that have deteriorated, because of the budget constraints to do
complete replacement.
Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group with locations in New Orleans and
Portland, said it best when describing the negative effect on commerce due to
the many closures we have seen and continue to see on the U.S. River system so
far in 2019: "The dependability of the U.S. conveyor belt is in question ...
big time now."
Here is the Sept. 11 news release from the Portland District about the
closure:
https://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/Media/News/Article/1957794/corps-of-engineers-off
icials-bonneville-navigation-lock-to-return-to-service-se/.
Here is a Columbia-Snake River fact sheet showing where the Bonneville Lock
and Dam is located: http://www.dtn.com/ag/assets/CSRS.pdf.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Stronger
OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $2 on average, to $136
per ton, for the week ended Sept. 12. The cash corn price rallied this week,
giving some support to DDG prices, along with tight supplies in areas where
plants have slowed or shut down.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted ethanol supply in the U.S
dropped more than 1 million barrels in the first week of September despite a
fourth straight week of decline in net inputs by refiners and blenders, a
measure of demand. EIA also said plant production rose 1% last week.
Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative
to corn for the week ended Sept. 12 was at 107.41%. The value of DDG relative
to soybean meal was at 45.93%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.04,
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.23.
In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "FOB Gulf
DDGS prices are slightly ($2/metric ton) lower this week while U.S. rail rates
have increased $3/mt on average. Asking prices for 40-foot containers to
Southeast Asia are up $3/mt to $235/mt following last week's active inquiries."
ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION CURRENT PREVIOUS CHANGE
COMPANY STATE 9/12/2019 9/5/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri Dry $145 $140 $5
Wet $73 $70 $3
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
Missouri Subject Dry $140 $140 $0
Wet $72 $72 $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois Dry $145 $140 $5
Indiana Dry $145 $140 $5
Iowa Dry $130 $125 $5
Michigan Dry $150 $145 $5
Minnesota Dry $130 $125 $5
North Dakota Dry $130 $125 $5
New York Dry $145 $140 $5
South Dakota Dry $125 $120 $5
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $135 $135 $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $150 $145 $5
Iowa Dry $135 $135 $0
Michigan Dry $135 $125 $10
Minnesota Dry $135 $130 $5
Missouri Dry $150 $150 $0
Ohio Dry $145 $140 $5
South Dakota Dry $140 $135 $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $145 $135 $10
Wet $55 $40 $15
Illinois Dry $143 $140 $3
Nebraska Dry $140 $135 $5
Wet $45 $40 $5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $135 $135 $0
Indiana Dry $140 $140 $0
Iowa Dry $130 $130 $0
Michigan Dry $135 $135 $0
Minnesota Dry $125 $125 $0
Nebraska Dry $130 $130 $0
New York Dry $150 $150 $0
North Dakota Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $145 $145 $0
South Dakota Dry $125 $125 $0
Wisconsin Dry $130 $130 $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana Dry $136 $136 $0
Iowa Dry $125 $125 $0
Minnesota Dry $120 $120 $0
Nebraska Dry $135 $135 $0
Ohio Dry $140 $140 $0
South Dakota Dry $128 $128 $0
California Dry $195 $195 $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
SUBJECT California Dry $205 $198 $7
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $136 $134 $2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.
VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 9/12/2019 $3.5450 $126.61
Soybean Meal 9/12/2019 $296.10
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $136.00
DDG Value Relative to: 9/5 9/5
Corn 107.41% 108.28%
Soybean Meal 45.93% 46.42%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $5.04 $4.96
Soybean Meal $6.23 $6.08
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.
Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com
Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn
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